Page 136 - RusRPTJul22

9.1.1b Oil and gas sector news
The embargo, blocking the import of 90% of Russian oil to Europe, has already been approved, but will come into force only from the beginning of 2023. As a result, the market has already priced in future supply cuts, but Europe still continues to buy Russian oil — and an embargo on the purchase of Russian gas is out of the question in practice.
As a result, oil production in Russia is now recovering after a fall in March-April - Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said at the SPIEF that by the end of June it would reach the pre-war level of 10.2mn barrels per day (b / d), and in July it would continue to grow . In the first 100 days of the war alone (February 24 to June 3), Russia received €93bn in revenue from energy exports - and the EU imported 61% of this volume, worth about €57bn. Of these €93bn, €59bn came from oil and petroleum products, €24bn for pipeline gas, €5.1bn for LNG and €4.8bn for coal.
By early 2023, the “protracted effect” of the European oil embargo should have worn off. Now the International Energy Agency predicts that by this moment Russian production will fall by 3mn b/d (immediately after the start of the war, the IEA expected such a result by April). But other factors that allow Russia to maintain oil windfalls may prove more sustainable.
136 RUSSIA Country Report October 2020 www.intellinews.com