Page 137 - RusRPTJul22

Sales of Russian crude to Europe fell by 554,000 b/d, according to Norwegian industry consultancy Rystad Energy. But Asian buyers during the same time increased the volume of purchases by 503,000 bpd (from an average of 1.14mn bpd in January-February to 1.517mn bpd in March-May), almost completely offsetting European losses. Indian refineries did not even begin to leave for annual scheduled repairs in order to process more cheap Russian oil. And after processing, it will become almost impossible to distinguish a barrel of Russian Urals from others when they enter the international market again, Rystad Energy notes.
Since the start of the war, based on the March-May 2022 average, Indian imports of Urals oil are up 658% from 2021 levels. For China, the growth was 205%, and for Asia as a whole - 347%, follows from Rystad Energy estimates. "Asia saved Russian oil production," Kpler analyst Victor Cato told the NYT.
Rebates on Russian-origin crude oil will remain high to provide Asian buyers with significant refining margins and offset higher insurance and freight costs due to sanctions, said Wei Chong Ho, vice president of refining at Rystad Energy. But even taking into account the discount, the price of Russian Urals has increased significantly. The average price of Urals oil, according to the Ministry of Finance, in January-May 2022 was $83.48 per barrel (for comparison: in January-May 2021 - $61.62 per barrel). The average price of Brent for January-May was about $104 per barrel, at the end of 2022, the IEA expects an average price of $107.4.
The Russian authorities have classified foreign trade statistics since April. But according to the estimates of Dmitry Polevoy, Investment Director of Loko-Invest, based on data from Russia's key partners, Russian exports in money in January-May grew by 40% in annual terms. Deliveries to Turkey, China, India and Brazil grew the most, Polevoy adds.
137 RUSSIA Country Report October 2020 www.intellinews.com