Page 26 - RusRPTJul22

wheat and other cereals." A close figure can be obtained by dividing the Ukrainian estimate of “stuck” grain (22mn tonnes) by the world production of wheat and coarse grains (2.3bn tonnes), but it rather masks the reality.
The Economist calculated that Russia and Ukraine together accounted for 12% of all global food exports, measured in calories. In real terms, for the main crops, this share is higher: 17% of corn grain exports, 30% of wheat (Ukraine alone has 7%), and 78% of sunflower oil exports.
There is simply nothing to replace the lost exports in dozens of countries with a population of hundreds of millions of people - mainly in northern Africa and the Middle East. According to the FAO, the share of Russian and Ukrainian wheat exceeds 30% in the wheat imports of 50 countries, 50% in the imports of 26 countries.
Several of the poorest countries without their own commodity production (Somalia, Eritrea, Benin, Lebanon - with a total population of almost 40mn people) almost completely depend on Russian and Ukrainian grain. One hundred millionth Egypt provides less than half of its demand for wheat with its own production, and 80% of imports come from Russia and Ukraine.
From the beginning of the year to mid-May, wheat has risen in price by one and a half times, and from May 16 - by another 6%, after India, which survived the most severe drought, banned exports.
According to Guterres, the world is on the verge of a multi-year food crisis that could put hundreds of millions of people on the brink of malnutrition in addition to the current 1.6bn. If the fighting in Ukraine continues, 323mn people face starvation, said the head of the UN World Food Program David Beasley.
The “special operation” did not create a food security crisis that had been deepening for years, but it exacerbated it to the extreme, Sarah Manker, head of Gro Intelligence, said at the UN Security Council. According to her, there were 10 weeks of grain reserves in the world, which was not even on the eve of the "Arab spring" of 2010: "This is not a cyclical, but a tectonic shock that happens once in a generation and is able to redraw the entire geopolitical picture." Is it possible to replace the sea There is no adequate replacement - before the “special operation”, more than 90% of Ukrainian grain was exported by sea.
The railway is the main alternative channel, but there is a big problem with it: in Ukraine, the Soviet gauge is 1520 mm, in Europe - 1435 mm. “This greatly complicates and slows down railway exports: at the border, grain must either be reloaded or wheelsets changed,” Sovecon founder Andrey Sizov told The Bell. “Therefore, Russia has always used the Baltic ports for grain exports – the cargo can be taken on one [wagon-]grain carrier to Klaipeda [through Belarus].” Another possibility is the southern route through the Romanian ports on the Danube and the Black Sea Constanta, but again this means complex and expensive transshipment at low capacities.
Bloomberg recently described all conceivable alternatives and calculated that in total they will give a maximum of 2mn tonnes per month, that is, a third of Ukraine's usual needs.
26 RUSSIA Country Report October 2020 www.intellinews.com