Page 27 - RusRPTJul22

22mn tonnes of unexported grain is almost a third of last year's Ukrainian grain planned for export. According to the President of the Ukrainian Grain Association Nikolay Gorbachev, since the beginning of the agricultural year, by February 24, 43mn tonnes have already been exported. In March, April and May, grain exports averaged no more than 1.3mn tonnes compared to 5.7mn tonnes in January and 5.1mn tonnes in February. In May, Ukrainian grain exports fell almost three times y/y, to 1.06mn tonnes, but this was mainly corn. The export of wheat almost stopped, having collapsed 18 times, from 756 thousand tonnes to 42 thousand tonnes.
This is chantage? It seems that the whole West thinks so: Russia has been accused of blockade of the coast of Ukraine, blackmail, hypocrisy and exploitation of the threat of global famine from all sides - from the head of the European Commission to the Pope.
The latest statements by the Russian leadership do not dissuade the fact that it sees a subject for bargaining here. Last Friday, Putin said that "there are no problems with the export of grain from Ukraine." Moreover, Russia does not interfere with Ukrainian exports through Odessa and Nikolaev and is not opposed to deliveries through the Russian-controlled Armed Forces of Mariupol and Berdyansk, as well as through Belarus, from which sanctions must be lifted for this. And in order to increase the export of grain from Russia (now it is constrained by quotas), it is necessary to cancel "sanctions related to the insurance of ships, with the impossibility of entering European ports," Dmitry Peskov believes.
In fact, now the risk for navigation in the north of the Black Sea is too great, and the price of insurance is prohibitively high for sane shipowners. This is not only about the mine danger, but also about the facts of missiles hitting civilian ships, explained Deutsche Welle, recognized in Russia as a foreign agent.
What's next? Regardless of the political upheavals, the reliable clearance of security corridors will take at least two to three months, writes Reuters.
Before that time, the next fork in the market will come - with the end of the agricultural year on June 30 and the expiration of Russian export quotas, Sizov said in an interview with Republic (recognized as a foreign media agent). If there are no political decisions, grain exports from Russia should increase significantly from July, but current quotes show that the market does not believe in this.
But the expert’s biggest fear is a real “grain war” on the part of Russia, which can immediately remove 20% of world trade. “The consequences will be such that we will see prices rise from current records at times. Factor of! And everything that happens will seem like a light warm-up,” he warns.
2.8 Costing Russia’s energy war and oil embargo
International sanctions on Russia’s central bank have had a meaningful impact on the CBR’s ability to access its reserve assets. However, the country’s
27 RUSSIA Country Report October 2020 www.intellinews.com