Page 74 - RusRPTJul22

up in certain sectors – production of computers and electronics rose by 36% y/y and medicines by 29% y/y.
Industrial Production in Russia decreased 8.50 percent in April of 2022 over the previous month. the most recent data available, its sharpest fall since April 2021.
4.2 Inflation
The sharp fall in Russian inflation in May to 17.1% y/y suggests that inflation may have already peaked and price pressures are likely to ease further in the coming months. This will give the central bank room to ease policy further, including with a 100bp rate cut, to 10%.
Month-on-month inflation fell sharply from 1.6% in April to 0.1% in May, below the 0.3% expected by analysts. This was the lowest month-on-month increase since mid-2020 and much weaker than the rates of 0.8-1.0% m/m before the war. We and other analysts had previously expected inflation to rise above 20% y/y in the coming months, but it now seems that it peaked in April at 17.8% y/y.
The breakdown showed that the fall in inflation was broad-based. (See Chart 1.) Non-food goods prices fell by 0.1% m/m and inflation eased to 19.2% y/y
74 RUSSIA Country Report October 2020 www.intellinews.com