Page 75 - RusRPTJul22
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     on the back of lower import prices due to the stronger ruble. Prices of electrical appliances dropped by 0.5% m/m and TVs by 3% m/m. This was much smaller than the falls in April, so suggests that the disinflationary impact of the currency is fading quite quickly.
Food prices rose by 0.6% m/m and 20.1% y/y, down a touch from 20.5% in April. Food prices in Russia have benefited from the stronger currency, but have also been pulled upwards by higher global agricultural prices. Meat inflation fell back a bit while fruit and vegetables, cereals and dairy inflation remained high. Meanwhile, services prices fell by 0.3% m/m, pushing y/y inflation down to 10.0%.
Further easing of month-on-month inflation is unlikely from June, particularly since most of the pass-through from the ruble’s appreciation will have happened. The latest weekly figures show that prices fell by 0.01% in the week to 3rd June. It seems that the easing in price pressures has stabilised (see Chart 2) but that alone should be enough to bring y/y inflation down further, potentially ending the year below 15%.
12-month inflation fell from 17.8 % in April to 17.1 % in May.
The CBR currently forecasts average inflation this year in the range of 14.0−17.0 % and 5.0−7.0 % next year. In 2024, inflation should approach the CBR’s inflation target of 4 %. The CBR expects the key rate to average between 10.8 % and 11.4 % this year, 7.0−9.0 % in 2023 and 6.0−7.0 % in 2024.
 75 RUSSIA Country Report October 2020 www.intellinews.com
 




























































































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