Page 48 - bneMag Oct23

48 I Eastern Europe bne October 2023
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, have for some time been drawn together by a shared vision for a multipolar world order that diffuses power away from the West. / bne IntelliNews
Russia and Iran: the Pariah Club Ben Aris in Berlin
The war in Ukraine has led
to unprecedented levels of Russian-Iranian co-operation
in the military, economic and political spheres. The rise of anti-Western hardliners in both Moscow and Tehran means that this co-operation is likely to continue and intensify, despite
the differences between them. Their relations are not so much a marriage of convenience, as a “club of pariahs.”
“The new relationship between Russia and Iran is a direct threat to the EU and European countries. Russian-Iranian co-operation could prolong the war
in Ukraine, increase Iranian capacity to advance its nuclear programme, destabilise the Middle East and undermine Western influence in institutions of global governance,” wrote Ellie Geranmayeh, the Deputy Director for the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
www.bne.eu
with Nicole Grajewski, a visiting fellow, in a recent paper that studied how the war in Ukraine is shaping Russo-Iranian relations.
“European governments should seek
to mitigate this damage through calibrated pressure and diplomacy. An important opening has now emerged for the West to de-escalate tensions with Iran and use its economic leverage to halt the advance of Russian-Iranian co-operation and isolate Russia,” the authors went on.
The Ukraine war and Russia’s pariah status has fundamentally changed much of the geopolitics in the emerging world. Under sanctions for decades, Iran has suddenly become a natural partner for Russia. This alliance has only been bolstered by the emergence of a BRICS bloc that the East-West clash has catalysed, and indeed Iran was added
to the BRICS+ at the summit in August.
Tehran has welcomed the allies and the additional clout that comes with joining a club that includes several of the biggest and most powerful emerging markets in the world, led by China.
Where the West had hoped to cut
Russia out from the herd and weaken its economy by imposing crushing sanctions, neither of those goals have been achieved. Potentially a united BRICS bloc could challenge the Western hegemony, which Beijing would like to see, but even a loose confederation more focused on trade
has improved the position of both Iran and Russia, providing them with ready- made allies. They are pariahs no more,
as countries are forced to choose sides in the showdown.
“These realities present new,
direct security threats to European governments. First, the strengthened partnership may enable Russia to prolong the war and increase the