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bne October 2023 Eastern Europe I 49
destruction in Ukraine. Secondly, together they can alter the balance
of power in the Middle East through Russian support of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, arms transfers to Iran, and threats of military escalation in Syria. Thirdly, they might undermine Western influence in institutions of global governance,” the ECFR authors said.
The Ukraine conflict only accelerated what were already steadily deepening ties between Iran and Russia, but Moscow restrained itself in order to avoid antagonising the West and Israel by getting too close to Tehran. Now Moscow is in open conflict with the West. Those restraints have fallen away, and indeed, the motivation is now to deepen their mutual relations as fast
as possible. Iran has emerged as one of Moscow’s most steadfast allies.
Russia now finds itself reliant on Iran in ways that were unimaginable prior to February 2022, says ECFR. Tehran’s provision of drones and rockets have greatly increased the Russian army’s destructive capabilities, making Iran Russia’s most significant military collaborator in the war.
The rupturing of normal cautious diplomacy that has been exaggerated
by the war, but was already present
in the trade wars begun by former US President Donald Trump and China,
is also manifest in Iran. After Trump reimposed sanctions on Iran in 2018 and the collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) talks, President Ebrahim Raisi abandoned efforts at normalising relations with the West and, like China and Russia, started to prepare itself with open conflict instead.
The increasingly hostile nature of the US towards Iran has created fertile ground for the rise of harder line fractions amongst the Iranian elite.
“A significant factor pushing Iran to support Russia’s war in Ukraine is the rise of hardliners and the deep state in monopolising decision-making. This power balance dynamic directly influenced Iran’s decision to support Russia in the conflict,” the ECFR authors say.
The authors quote an Iranian expert who described the relations in a
secret briefing in Brussels as: “the
West repeatedly disappointed [the more moderate] faction by betraying their deals and giving them nothing. Meanwhile, Russia has nurtured and strengthened the hand of the hardliners now in power. It has offered and delivered economic gains, military upgrades, and security assistance to maintain their position.”
New relations
The new close relations between Russia and Iran are not based on shared goals and ideology. Indeed, ideologically Iran and Russia are poles apart. One is a Middle Eastern Islamic theocracy while the other is a European autocracy based on Orthodox Christian conservative values.
It is also said that the lack of common ground will also stymie the development of the BRICS bloc, as the members have little in common. However, the glue that is holding
the BRICS together in general, and Russia and Iran together in particular, is a shared fear and resentment of the G7+ control of the international geopolitical stage and the implicit threat that the sanctions tools that have been used on Russia and Iran can be used on any member of the emerging markets, should they cross the West. Russian President Vladimir
co-operation to facilitate each country’s national interest goals.
Security co-operation: Prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Moscow and Tehran had a patron-client military relationship, with Russia supplying Iran with military equipment. However, Iran's contribution of drone technology to Russia, notably used in Ukraine, has transformed this dynamic. US officials are now concerned that Moscow and Tehran are evolving into a "full-fledged defence partnership." This co-operation includes the potential transfer of Russian Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets that could significantly advance
the performance of Iran’s military arsenal. Another area closely watched in Western and Middle Eastern capitals is whether Russia provides Iran with its S-400 air defence system and supports Iran’s missile production. Russian cyber technology is also a capacity that Iran wants to acquire.
“These developments are not only advancing Russia’s capabilities in Ukraine, but they also have the potential to provide Iran with a stronger military hand in the Middle East,” ECFR said.
Economic co-operation: Russia is now virtually on a par with Iran as one of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world and the bulk of their relations going forward will be built on economic tie-ups. Iran has navigated sanctions for over four decades and has developed
“The Ukraine conflict only accelerated what were already steadily deepening ties between Iran and Russia”
Putin and Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, have for some time been drawn together by a shared vision for a multipolar world order that diffuses power away from the West, but that is the extent of the overlap in their common worldviews.
As a result, the relationship between Russia and Iran, and the other members of the BRICS+, is built on pragmatic
almost a blueprint for Russian officials on how to evade them. In the aftermath of Ukraine-related sanctions, according to one Russian economic expert, there has been “a lot of serious work” to improve economic ties between Russia and Iran, which had always been
“a weak point” in the relationship.
Russian-Iranian bilateral trade has seen a notable increase since February 2022,
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