Page 13 - RusRPTSept22

Inflation in the event of a global crisis in 2023 will rise to 13-16%, forcing the CBR to hike rates aggressively compared to the baseline scenario of 4%, and it will maintain rates at an elevated level.
2.2 Russia’s economy doing surprisingly well - for now
How is that Kremlin bank account looking? Imported items including i-phones are still available and sanctions will take years to make a difference.
Figures for the Russian budget in the first half of 2022 have been released, and are more optimistic than in March or April," Peter Mironenko the editor of one of Russia’s most respected independent economic journals,
"The Bell" told Fox News.
"We see the figures. They are not manipulated. On the one hand we see an economic downturn in the second quarter. GDP fell around 4% and in the third quarter we will have about 7%. This is a recession. But the scale is much more modest than it was said to be three or four months ago."
That is less than Russia’s Central Bank’s initial prediction of an 8-10% GDP decline this year.
Amongst the better than expected results is household income is down just 0.8%, according to Mironenko and inflation continues to fall. Uncertainty has suppressed consumer demand and parallel imports are already working. Apple pulled out of Russia and closed its stores, but iPhones are readily available and at the same prices as a year ago.
“The government has avoided price controls even if everything else they do feels like going back to the USSR,” Mironenko said.
13 RUSSIA Country Report September 2022 www.intellinews.com