Page 14 - RusRPTSept22

Unemployment is also one of the highlights and at a historic low of 3.9% for two months in a row, although that may change in the autumn as withdrawing foreign companies have left their staff on the payroll for the summer and collectively account for 10% of the Russian workforce. The government has also increased pensions and salaries since the war began by about 10% to help cushion the sanctions shock.
"The sanctions didn’t decrease the income of the Russian budget from oil exports, so the government has money," Mironenko, who recently went into exile.
"It will (have money) in 2022 and in 2023, and as we know, historically Vladimir Putin’s government was also very good, very cautious about people’s personal income. His whole ‘prosperity legend’ is based on the constant increase of people’s personal income. Since 2000, it has been very linked with the growing oil prices,” Mironenko told Fox News.
Mironenko believes that sanctions will take three to five years to really start making a difference to Russia’s economy.
Oil is more important than gas and when the EU oil ban kicks in on December 5 then that might cause a shock to Russia’s economy, but it is still not clear how bad this will be.
2.3 Russia crude exports to India & China peaked
China and India now account for more than 40% of Russia’s oil export volumes.
The world’s biggest and third-largest crude importers accounted for 1.85mn barrels per day (bpd) of Russia’s total exports of 4.47mn bpd in July, according to data from commodity analysts Kpler, Reuters reports.
This gives the two Asian giants a share of 41.4% of Russia’s total crude shipments in July, which is almost double the 21.7% India and China had in July last year.
However, the share of crude taken by India and China has dipped in recent months, having reached a high of 45.4% in May, which was when Russia was desperately trying to find new buyers for its crude as Western nations curbed imports after Moscow’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine.
China and India accounted for 45.2% of Russia’s oil exports in June.
China was the destination of 843,000 bpd of Russian crude in July, down from 1.33mn bpd in both June and May, according to Kpler’s shipping data.
Switching to looking at imports shows China imported 1.16mn bpd from Russia in July via the seaborne market, according to Kpler, while Refinitiv Oil Research estimated total seaborne and pipeline imports at 1.67mn bpd.
14 RUSSIA Country Report September 2022 www.intellinews.com