Page 29 - RusRPTSept22

of the Schengen Agreement and issue Schengen visas - Switzerland, Norway and Iceland, recalls Alexander Zakharov, partner of Paragon Advice Group.
It will not be easy for the Baltic countries to break through such decisions. Public discussion so far shows that there is no broad support in the EU for the proposals of Estonia, Latvia and Finland. Only one country directly supported the initiative - the Czech Republic, which is currently chairing the EU. On Friday, Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky said his government would seek European consensus on a visa ban for Russians.
Only one country also opposed the proposal - but the most influential in Europe: Germany. Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Thursday that Europe would go too far with the ban and would be difficult to enforce. “At least Hungary and Germany will not agree with the ban,” said Zakharov from Paragon Advice.
The representative of the European Commission Anitta Hipper, after each statement of the Baltic governments, gives the media the same comment, which boils down to the fact that the European visa rules do not imply a complete ban on issuing visas to a particular country. “There should always be exceptions – humanitarian cases, family members, journalists or dissidents,” she said.
2.10 CBR publishes gloomy near-term economic outlook
The Central Bank of Russia published its strategy and outlook for the near term on August 12 entitled, "The main directions of monetary policy until 2025". In none of the CBR’s three strategies does the regulator see the economy recovering from the cost of the war in Ukraine or the sanctions imposed by the West.
The three scenarios are the baseline, accelerated adaptation and, most ominously, a global crisis.
Base case The CBR’s preferred scenario takes into account the impact of all of the West’s sanctions, including the EU oil embargo which is due to start on December 5, when all Russian crude oil imports will be banned, followed by refined products on February 5.
Under this scenario the economy will contract by 4-6% this year and another 1-4% but return to growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 with a 1-2% expansion. Thereafter the economy will grow again, but will be limited to the range of 1.5-2.5% from 2025 onwards, according to Central Bank Deputy Chairman Alexei Zabotkin, as reported by The Bell.
During this period oil prices are expected to hold up at $80 per barrel in 2023 before falling to $70 and then $60 in the following two years respectively.
The CBR also expects the cost of the Urals blend of oil to return to the long-term equilibrium level of $55 per barrel in 2025, and indeed the discount between the Russian blend and the benchmark Brent blend has already
29 RUSSIA Country Report September 2022 www.intellinews.com