Page 31 - RusRPTSept22

The CBR identifies two elements driving these trends. The first is persistently high inflation in major economies, which will require central banks to aggressively tighten monetary policy, resulting in a global recession. The second factor is the growing geopolitical tensions in the world, including the introduction of new sanctions against Russia, especially those targeting energy.
“The combination of these events could exacerbate imbalances in the global economy and lead to a new global financial and economic crisis, comparable in scale to the crisis of 2007-2008,” the regulator said.
With its economy already under pressure, a global crisis will significantly complicate its attempt at restructuring and adaptation to new conditions, as the budget will be stripped of a major source of revenue once commodity prices fall.
In the global crisis scenario the CBR has forecast Russia’s GDP will contract in 2023 more than in 2022. In 2024, the decline will continue, and only return to growth in 2025 – a year later than in the base case scenario – but even then growth will only be at a low rate of about 1%.
Inflation in the event of a global crisis in 2023 will rise to 13-16%, forcing the CBR to hike rates aggressively compared to the baseline scenario of 4%, and it will maintain rates at an elevated level.
2.11 Russia’s IT labour market in turmoil
Since the beginning of the war, the IT industry labour market has been in turmoil: the exodus of foreigners from the governing bodies and top management of the largest players was accompanied by the departure of ordinary IT specialists abroad. There was no one to replace the former, while the latter found themselves in a difficult situation: the number of vacancies on the market is falling, but salaries are not growing.
The Russian IT market suffered its first big losses immediately after the start of the war. In February, the boards of directors of Russian companies left several former European politicians at once.
The former Prime Minister of Finland Esko Aho announced the immediate withdrawal from the Supervisory Board of Sberbank. He entered it back in 2016 and has since been re-elected annually. “We have one new candidate - Esko Aho - this is the former Prime Minister of Finland ... a very respected person, has great authority, has been involved in the high-tech market a lot,” German Gref, head of Sberbank, explained Aho's appearance on the board to reporters.
By that time, Sberbank “because of its involvement in the annexation of Crimea” had already been under sectoral sanctions by the US and the EU for
31 RUSSIA Country Report September 2022 www.intellinews.com