Page 51 - RusRPTSept22

The short-term conclusions of the experts boiled down to the fact that the third quarter will be the peak of the decline in GDP (this also follows from the forecast of the Central Bank). But on a “longer trajectory of recession,” new tests await the economy, the most obvious is the entry into full force of EU sanctions at the end of the year, banning the import of Russian oil. This could trigger a second wave of GDP contraction. The EU plans to cut two thirds of crude imports by December 5 and refined products by February 5.
The combination of an accelerating economic downturn with slowing inflation makes further rate cuts almost inevitable. The next meeting of the board of directors on the rate will be held on September 16. The latest Reuters poll of analysts at the end of last week suggests that by the end of the year the rate will be reduced by another 1 percentage point from 8% to 7%.
51 RUSSIA Country Report September 2022 www.intellinews.com