Page 53 - RusRPTSept22

The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has revised its forecast for inflation from 17.6% to 13.4% as of the end of 2022, according to key parameters in the 2025 draft socioeconomic development outlook available with TASS.
The Ministry of Economic Development has significantly improved the forecast for the ruble exchange rate, GDP and inflation in 2022 compared to estimates published in mid-May. The forecast is not published in its entirety, but a fragment with its main indicators was at the disposal of four business publications - the data is provided by RBC, Vedomosti, Forbes and Kommersant. Experts consider some estimates of the Ministry of Economics too optimistic.
According to the updated forecast of the department:
● GDP at the end of this year will fall by 4.2% (the May forecast included a fall of 7.8%);
● inflation at the end of the year will be 13.4% (instead of 17.5%);
● real disposable incomes of the population will decrease by 2.8%
(instead of 6.8%);
● the average annual unemployment rate will remain at the level of 2021
- 4.8% (instead of 6.7%);
● the average annual dollar exchange rate is expected to be 68.1 rubles
in 2022, 69.2 rubles in 2023, 72.9 rubles in 2024 and 74.8 rubles in 2025 (in the May forecast it was 76.7 rubles, 77 rubles, 78.7 rubles and 81 rubles, respectively);
● exports for the year are expected to be $585.3 billion (against $482.4 billion in May), imports - $285.7 billion (against $252 billion).
● With the improvement of the forecast for 2022, estimates of some indicators for future years worsened. In 2023, the Ministry of Economic Development expects a fall in GDP by 2.7% (instead of May's 0.7%). It is next year, according to department estimates, that the peak of the economic downturn will occur. In 2024, it will return to growth - by 3.7%.
According to the document, inflation will gear down to 5.5% in 2023. The consumer price index is expected to gain 4.2% in 2024 and 4% in 2025.
The ministry also expects Russia’s trade balance to be $299.6bn as of the end of 2022 and its further decline. The document forecasts that exports will grow to $585.3bn in 2022 and imports will decline to $285.7bn. The surplus of $190.8bn is expected in 2023 on account of lower exports and higher imports ($505.4bn and $314.5bn accordingly). The macroeconomic outlook anticipates a smaller decrease in exports against more active import recovery in the next two years. According to estimates in the draft document, the trade balance surplus will stand at $169.2bn in 2024 and $153.6bn in 2025.
"We had an extremely high trade balance in the first six months of the year. The trade balance is expected to contract gradually on account of recovering imports and certain drop in exports by virtue of the need to redirect export flows to new destinations and certain losses related to such refocusing," a
53 RUSSIA Country Report September 2022 www.intellinews.com