Page 99 - RusRPTDec22

9.0 Industry & Sectors 9.1 Sector news
9.1.1a Oil & gas sector results
The Russian Arctic continental shelf contains more than 85 trillion cubic meters of natural gas and 17bn metric tonnes of oil, Head of Federal Agency for Subsoil Management Evgeny Petrov said on November 28.
Russia’s oil output fell 1.3% to 45.3 mln tns in October and Russia’s gasoline production falls 6.2%. Russia’s gas production falls by 20.3% in October.
Russia’s natural gas production decreased by 13% y/y to 474bn cubic meters in January-October 2022, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said on November 23. In October, gas production amounted to 45.7bn cubic meters, which is 20.3% down y/y, and 17% up month-on-month. In January-October, production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) amounted to 26.9mn tonnes, which is 10.6% up y/y. In October, LNG production amounted to 2.8mn tonnes, which is 1.2% up y/y and 10.4% up month-on-month. Production of associated petroleum gas in January-October decreased by 0.7% to 82.2bn cubic meters. Earlier, Gazprom reported that in January-October 2022, it reduced gas production by 18.6% y/y to 344bn cubic meters.
Gazprom produced 360bcm of gas YTD through 15 November, down 19% or 85bcm vs the same period last year, per a Gazprom press release on November 15.
Exports to non-CIS countries (generally Europe, Turkey, and China) amounted to 93bcm, a 43% or almost 72bcm y/y drop. Domestic demand was down 6% or 12bcm, something we attribute at least partially to weather variability.
BCS GM said in a note: “Export falls large, but fully expected – we keep our export assumptions. Our existing assumption is that Gazprom’s exports to Europe + Turkey will fall this year by 95bcm to 85bcm from 175bcm last year, modestly offset by a 5bcm increase in exports to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline to 16bcm. This leaves 8bcm to be delivered in the last 90 days of the year, something we think is achievable given existing levels of exports to China and Europe via Ukraine, and at least 70% capacity utilization of the Blue Stream and TurkStream pipelines. Our forecast for 2023e is at 87bcm with 65bcm going to Europe + Turkey (effectively just using existing modest
99 RUSSIA Country Report December 2022 www.intellinews.com