Page 12 - GEORptMar19

Turnover in Georgia’s business sector up 17.3% y/y in Q3
The aggregated turnover in Georgia’s business sector rose by 17.3% y/y to GEL21.8bn ($8.2bn) in Q3, statistics office Geostat has announced. Growth was driven by companies in the arts, entertainment and recreation sector (+93.8% y/y). The sector has been the main driver throughout the year. |Real estate firms also increased their business in the third quarter (+17.9% y/y), despite the negative performance posted by construction.
For the whole January-September period, total business turnover soared by 18.4% y/y to GEL59.7bn ($22.5bn).
The largest turnover was reported in retail (and services to households), namely at GEL26.8bn (nearly half of the total) in January-September. The rise for this sector was 12.0% y/y (14.9% y/y in Q3 alone). In construction, in contrast, turnover increased by only 3.4% y/y in January-September (and contracted by 4.4% y/y in Q3).
The number of employees increased by 3.3% y/y to 665,500 in Q3.
Business Turnover [GEL mn]
By kind of economic activities, total Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining and quarrying Manufacturing
Electricity, gas, etc
Water supply; sewerage, etc
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade; services to households Transportation and storage
Accommodation and food service activities Accommodation
Food and beverage service activities
Information and communication
Real estate activities
Professional, scientific and technical activities Administrative and support service activities Education
Human health and social work activities
Arts, entertainment and recreation
Other service activities
Source: Geostat
3.2 Macro outlook
Q3 18
21,829 102 194 2,332 715
72 1,874 9,610 1,409 531 269 263 435 315 369 389 72 252 3,120 39
Jan-Sep y/y 18
59,732 18.5% 319 9.6% 559 15.5% 6,676 9.9% 2,375 12.2% 196 10.2% 4,988 3.4% 26,825 14.9% 3,820 12.5% 1,328 14.7% 614 14.2% 713 15.1% 1,249 2.8% 883 18.6% 1,012 10.9% 910 16.2% 269 11.6% 777 9.5% 7,435 93.8% 111 17.6%
Q3 y/y
17.3% 2.9% 5.3% 0.4% 14.4% 5.1% -4.4% 12.0% 11.3% 11.9% 8.8% 15.2% 2.0% 17.9% 10.2% 13.0% 9.6% 7.1% 136.6% 9.0%
Georgia’s central bank baseline scenario sees 5% GDP growth across 2019-2021
Georgia’s GDP will rise by 5% per annum during 2019-2021, under a baseline scenario published by its central bank.
Headline inflation will hover around 3% p.a. under the baseline scenario (2.9% in 2019), allowing the regulator to ease its policy rate by 0.5pp in 2019 and 2020 and by 0.25pp in 2021. The nominal Georgian lari exchange rate versus the US dollar will remain steady, resulting in the currency strengthening in real terms.
12 GEORGIA Country Report March 2019 www.intellinews.com