Page 13 - GEORptMar19

World Bank sees robust, steady 5% GDP growth in Georgia from 2018 to 2021
Under a scenario with a negative external shock formulated by the central bank, Georgian GDP would only rise by 2% in 2019, 2.5% in 2020 and 3.5% in 2021. Under a compiled strong demand scenario, the growth rate would accelerate to 6% in 2019 and gradually ease to 5% in 2021 .
The World Bank has revised its estimate for Georgia’s GDP growth in 2018 upwards to 5% from the 4.2% it anticipated last June. It added in the latest edition of its Global Economic Prospects report, released late on January 8, that it now expects the country to maintain the same robust growth rate from 2019 to 2021.
The revised outlook is slightly more optimistic for 2019, as it adds 0.2pp to the growth expectation versus the June 2018 forecast.
Among the risks, the World Bank spots possible spillover effects from Turkey’s economic downturn via the flow of FDI to Georgia.
The International Monetary Fund in its latest World Economic Outlook issue, released last October 9, revised its forecast for Georgia’s 2018 GDP growth to 5.5% from the 4.5% it projected in April. Independent projections put the country’s expected growth this year at above 6%, but caution is shown when it comes to possible strengthening adverse effects stemming from the Turkish lira crisis.
Georgia’s GDP growth was estimated at 4.9% y/y for January-September 2018 by the country’s statistics office, while it improved to 5.1% y/y for January-October. But the monthly GDP estimates are volatile, and are subject to deep revisions. On a broader perspective, growth rates of around 5% as seen in 2017 and 2018 have not yet resulted in visible improvements in the standard of living in Georgia.
13 GEORGIA Country Report March 2019 www.intellinews.com