Page 120 - RusRPTOct22

Gazprom boosted gas supplies through the pipeline to China by 60% in January-August.
Russia oil production is poised to drop by 17% by February next year compared with the pre-war output, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported in its monthly oil report this week, as a result of the EU imposing its embargo on some of the country’s exports.
The EU finalised plans earlier this year to impose a ban on seaborne crude oil shipments from Russia this December, either on the spot market or under existing contracts, and the embargo will be extended to oil products two months later. Pipeline imports from Russia will still be permitted, representing a compromise to Hungary and other countries in Central Europe that rely heavily on oil deliveries via Russia’s Druzhba pipeline system.
The fall in Russian production of 1.9mn barrels per day predicted by the IEA by next February is lower than the 3mn bpd drop it forecast in March, it still highlights the significant impact that the EU ban could have, even as Russian exporters scramble to divert supplies to other markets, namely in Asia.
Russian output is set to drop from 11mn bpd of crude oil and petroleum products last month – hardly down from the pre-war level – to 10.2mn bpd by December and 9.5mn bpd by 2023. The IEA had said last month that sanctions were only having a limited impact on Russian hydrocarbon exports, but the latest forecast suggests the effect will be more meaningful within a year.
A significant uncertainty is how effective the oil price cap proposed by G7 members will have on Russian exports. The cap will work by preventing the insurance of oil tankers carrying shipments to buyers that are not complying. But its success will depend on whether major Russian oil buyers in Asia, such as China and India, will sign up to the scheme. The IEA said some third countries were unlikely to agree on the cap, presenting an opportunity for Russian oil to be rerouted.
The IEA meanwhile lowered its forecast for global oil demand this year by 110,000 bpd.
9.1.1b Oil sector news
120 RUSSIA Country Report October 2022 www.intellinews.com
EU countries have slashed imports of Russian crude oil. Russia’s seaborne crude exports to Europe are being diminished, with the bloc’s further sanctions only about two months away. Shipments in recent weeks have been little more than half pre-invasion levels and will come under increasing pressure as the import ban nears. Customers in northern Europe have slashed