Page 121 - RusRPTOct22

their imports, which are now running below 300,000 barrels a day. That’s about a quarter of the volume that was traded into the region before Moscow sent its forces into Ukraine. Meanwhile, the diversion of crude flows from Europe to Asia appears to have stalled. Flows to the big three buyers of Russian barrels (China, India, and Turkey), which initially stepped in to fill the gap after European buyers started to shun Moscow’s exports, have declined since August. Combined flows to these three countries in the four weeks ending September 23 were down by about 460,000 barrels a day from the high seen five weeks earlier.
The OPEC+ group of oil producers is expected to cut combined output by at least 1mn barrels per day (bpd) during the first meeting since the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic began. The anticipated reduction would be OPEC+’s second in as many months, with September’s decision wiping out the 100,000 bpd added to output in August. Over the previous 18 months the group had been working to return around 10mn bpd of supplies taken off the market to stem the massive losses experienced by oil exporting nations when crude prices plummeted in Q2 2020. The slow build-back ensured that prices rose steadily, but renewed volatility amid conflict and concerns about demand has necessitated action in the opposite direction as many market commentators opine that the group now views $90 per barrel as a non-negotiable price floor.
Gazprom’s exports to Europe and Turkey were down 38.8% year on year
between January 1 and September 15, the company reported on its Telegram channel, with the accelerated decline reflecting Gazprom’s closure of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline at the end of last month.
Exports amounted to 84.8bn cubic metres in the nine and a half months, down 53.7 bcm from the same period last year. Sales to the domestic market were down 3.3%, while production dropped 15.9% to 300.8 bcm.
Germany is in talks with the Kazakh government on securing oil deliveries for its Schwedt refinery via the Druzhba pipeline, Reuters has reported, citing a policy document released by the German government on September 16. The news report did not specify any other details. It is also unclear under what circumstances Russia would allow Kazakh oil to pass via the Druzhba pipeline, given Kazakhstan has already been having trouble carrying out oil shipments via the CPC pipeline, which runs to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. Analysts suspect Russia has been interfering with the pipeline’s operations as part of its overall reaction against the West’s sanctions imposed on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. The German government has wrested control of Schwedt refinery from the German subsidiary of Russia's Rosneft. It has been placed under state control.
Russia has agreed to Turkey paying for 25% of its imported Russian gas supplies in rubles and the agreement will come into effect in the near future,
121 RUSSIA Country Report October 2022 www.intellinews.com