Page 83 - RusRPTOct22

The purpose of the oil price cap is to give an exit valve for Russian oil (to bring more Russian oil to the market, not less) at a lower price, as concern was that the EU oil embargo to come on in early 2023 will be too binding. Here are the scenarios
Russia can reduce oil export volume by 10% and face the oil price of $75, and lose about 3.2% of GDP in fiscal revenues. This means its deficit would be roughly 3.2pp higher up to 6% of GDP.
With the Ruble weakening to as much as $150, Russia might gain should it cut oil exports by 10% and face an oil price of $75, as its revenues would be higher than otherwise.
83 RUSSIA Country Report October 2022 www.intellinews.com