Page 4 - AfrElec Week 42 2021

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec

Fossil fuel production plans

out of sync with Paris limits

ASIA GOVERNMENTS around the world still plan governments plan to produce around 110%
to produce more than double the amount of fos- more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consist-
sil fuels in 2030 than what would be consistent ent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, and 45%
with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, despite more than consistent with 2°C. The size of the
increased climate ambitions and net-zero production gap has remained largely unchanged
commitments. compared to prior assessments. Governments’
That is the conclusion of the 2021 Production production plans and projections would lead to
Gap Report, published by the UN Environment about 240% more coal, 57% more oil and 71%
Programme (UNEP) and leading research insti- more gas in 2030 than would be consistent with
tutes. The report measures the gap between gov- limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
ernments’ planned production of coal, oil and Meanwhile, global gas production is pro-
gas and the global production levels consistent jected to increase the most between 2020 and
with meeting the Paris Agreement temperature 2040 based on governments’ plans. This contin-
limits. The 2021 report has found that the pro- ued, long-term global expansion in gas produc-
duction gap has remained largely unchanged tion is inconsistent with the Paris Agreement’s
since the first report in 2019. temperature limits. Countries have directed over
Over the next two decades, governments are $300bn in new funds towards fossil fuel activities
collectively projecting an increase in global oil since the beginning of the coronavirus (COVID-
and gas production, and only a modest decrease 19) pandemic – more than they have towards
in coal production. Taken together, their plans clean energy.
and projections see global, total fossil fuel pro- In contrast, international public finance for
duction increasing until at least 2040, creating production of fossil fuels from G20 countries
an ever-widening production gap. and major multilateral development banks
“The devastating impacts of climate change (MDBs) has significantly decreased in recent
are here for all to see. There is still time to limit years; one-third of MDBs and G20 development
long-term warming to 1.5°C, but this window finance institutions (DFIs) by asset size have
of opportunity is rapidly closing,” said Inger adopted policies that exclude fossil fuel produc-
Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. tion activities from future finance.
“At COP26 and beyond, the world’s govern- The report calls for more verifiable and com-
ments must step up, taking rapid and immedi- parable information on fossil fuel production
ate steps to close the fossil fuel production gap and support – from both governments and com-
and ensure a just and equitable transition. This is panies – in order to address the production gap.
what climate ambition looks like.” “Early efforts from development finance
The tone of the report contrasts with the institutions to cut international support for fos-
IEA’s recent qualified praise of the G7’s strengths sil fuel production are encouraging, but these
in making progress to net zero, and stresses changes need to be followed by concrete and
that much needs to be done to push forward ambitious fossil fuel exclusion policies to limit
decarbonisation. global warming to 1.5°C”, says Lucile Dufour,
The 2021 Production Gap Report covered senior policy advisor, International Institute for
15 major producer countries: Australia, Brazil, Sustainable Development (IISD).
Canada, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, “Fossil fuel-producing nations must recog-
Mexico, Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South nise their role and responsibility in closing the
Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United production gap and steering us towards a safe
Kingdom and the US. The country profiles show climate future,” says Måns Nilsson, executive
that most of these governments continue to director at SEI. “As countries increasingly com-
provide significant policy support for fossil fuel mit to net-zero emissions by mid-century, they
production. also need to recognise the rapid reduction in
“The research is clear: global coal, oil and gas fossil fuel production that their climate targets
production must start declining immediately will require.”
and steeply to be consistent with limiting long- The report is produced by the Stockholm
term warming to 1.5°C,” says Ploy Achakulwisut, Environment Institute (SEI), International
a lead author on the report and SEI scientist. Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD),
“However, governments continue to plan for ODI, E3G and UNEP. More than 80 researchers
and support levels of fossil fuel production that contributed to the analysis and review, spanning
are vastly in excess of what we can safely burn.” numerous universities, think-tanks and other
The report found that the world’s research organisations.™

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