Page 26 - bne IntelliNews monthly country report Russia February 2024

recent years.
Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich loses appeal to be removed from EU sanctions list. Abramovich and other top Russian oligarchs were sanctioned after the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He filed a challenge against the decision at the EU court in Brussels, saying that he had no influence over the Kremlin's decisions and that his business interests were not connected to the war.
Russian Security Council secretary ordered Prigozhin's assassination. Sources in Russian and Western intelligence told the WSJ that Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev ordered the assassination of Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin, adding that Russian leader Vladimir Putin did not object to the plans.d
● War
Bild: Russia may attempt to attack Europe next winter, European intelligence source says. European intelligence suggests that Russia may launch an attack on Europe during the winter of 2024-2025 if the United States finds itself "without a leader" following the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the German tabloid Bild reported on Dec. 23, citing an anonymous European intelligence source.
Russia plans to wage war until 2026; without the support of the West, the Russian Federation will conquer all of Ukraine and open military bases near NATO countries. The information published by Bild concerning Russia's plans to occupy new Ukrainian territories during 2024-2026 corresponds with other data that has been received, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) confirmed. As Bild writes, Russia plans to capture most of the Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv regions, including Kharkiv, if possible, in 2025 and 2026. To achieve this goal, Putin is prepared to lose up to 100,000 troops in Ukraine each year. At the same time, according to ISW estimates, the sudden end of Western aid will lead to the collapse of Ukraine's ability to contain the Russian armed forces. Eventually, they will reach the western border of Ukraine. Russia will then establish military bases on the borders of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania. Moscow will also increase its military presence in Belarus. This will allow Putin to create conditions for a quick attack on one or more NATO countries.
Putin exaggerates number of Russian troops in Ukraine, intelligence says. There are around 450,000 Russian troops deployed in Ukraine, rather than 617,000 as Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed, the spokesperson of Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR), Andrii Yusov, said on Dec. 15.
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