Page 27 - bne IntelliNews monthly country report Russia February 2024

The US tries to persuade Ukraine to negotiate with Russia. According to the NYT, some US military officials are proposing a new strategy for Ukraine: focus on holding onto the territories it controls and developing its weapon-producing capabilities through 2024. The US believes this strategy will improve Ukraine's self-sufficiency and help Kyiv repel any new Russian offensive. The strategy is designed to create a sufficiently substantial military threat that would force the Russian Federation to consider participating in meaningful negotiations at the end of next year or in 2025. According to American officials, Ukraine may lose the war without a new strategy and additional funding. Administration officials say President Putin is betting on a reduction in American support, pointing to his recent statements that if Ukraine runs out of NATO-provided ammunition, Russia will win within days. The publication writes that many Ukrainian leaders do not realise how unstable the war’s further financing by the US is.
On November 30, President Putin signed a decree increasing the number of troops in the Russian army by almost 170,000. According to the decree, the number of military personnel in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will expand by nearly 15%, from 1,150,628 to 1,320,000. “The increase in the strength of the army is due to growing threats to our country linked with the special military operation and the continuing expansion of Nato,” the Ministry of Defence posted on Telegram. The Ministry’s Telegram post focused on the threat from Nato in particular, referencing a buildup of weapons near the Russian border in addition to the bloc’s other “aggressive activities.”
The Ministry of Defence also said that the troop increase will not involve another wave of mobilisation. “There are no plans to significantly increase the conscription of citizens for compulsory military service,” the Ministry said. This means that the additional 170,000 troops will allegedly come from citizen volunteers. However, critics of the government say that a “hidden mobilisation” is already effectively taking place in the form of sporadic drafts and more aggressive recruitment drives in Russia’s regions.
● Weapons
The world is rearming due to the aggressive plans of Russia, China, and North Korea. Over the past two years, global arms companies have increased their portfolio of orders by 10%, writes the FT. In total, 15 arms manufacturers received orders worth $777.6B by the end of 2022, while in 2020, weapon orders totaled $701.2B. This trend continues in 2023. In the first six months of the year, pre-orders at these companies amounted to $764B.
27 RUSSIA Country Report February 2024 www.intellinews.com