Page 32 - bne IntelliNews monthly country report Russia February 2024
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the forecast horizon is unchanged at $517bn, which is 6% lower than in 2021.
Imports of goods and services: No significant changes. Imports are forecast at $377bn (-$4bn) for 2023, $390bn for 2024, and $406bn (-$3bn) for 2025. Analysts expect that by the end of the forecast horizon imports will amount to $414bn (-$7bn), which is by 9% higher than in 2021.
$/RUB exchange rate: Analysts have revised downwards their forecasts for the $/RUB exchange rate over the entire forecast horizon, but a tendency towards a gradual ruble depreciation has remained unchanged. Analysts’ forecast for 2023 is 85.4 rubles per dollar (assuming the average exchange rate in December 2023 will be 93.6 rubles per dollar), 92.0 rubles per dollar for 2024, 93.0 rubles per dollar for 2025 and 94.8 rubles per dollar for 2026 (revised by −0.6–4.6% compared to the October survey).
Brent oil price: According to analysts’ expectations, the average Brent oil price in 2023 will be around $83 per barrel (assuming the average Brent oil price in December 2023 will be $80 per barrel), and will decrease to $80 per barrel in 2024-2025, and to $75 per barrel in 2026.
32 RUSSIA Country Report February 2024 www.intellinews.com
