Page 31 - bne IntelliNews monthly country report Russia February 2024

3.1 Macroeconomic overview
The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for the next years made in December according to a CBR survey have narrowed for most indicators, especially for exports and imports. The ranges for the unemployment rate, imports, Brent oil price are widening by the end of the forecast period.
Inflation: The median inflation forecast for 2023 has been increased to 7.6% (+0.6 p.p compared to the October survey). Forecasts for the following years are unchanged. Analysts expect inflation to return to the target of the Bank of Russia in 2025 and remain at this level in 2026.
Key rate: Analysts expect a higher trajectory of the key rate over the entire forecast horizon. They have raised their expectations to 9.9% per annum (+0.1 p.p.) on average in 2023, 0% per annum (+1.4 p.p.) on average in 2024, 9.0% per annum (+0.8 p.p.) on average in 2025, and 7.0% per annum (+0.5 p.p.) on average in 2026. Analysts’ median estimate of the neutral key rate has increased to 6.5% per annum (+0.5 p.p.).
GDP: Analysts have considerably improved the GDP forecast for 2023 to +3.1% (+0.6 p.p.). The forecast for 2024 has been revised downwards by 0.2 p.p. to 1.3%. The forecasts for the following years and the estimate of the long-term GDP growth rate are unchanged at +1.5% per annum. According to analysts, the change in GDP in 2026 to the 2021 level will be +5.3% (up from +4.9% according to the October survey).
Unemployment rate: Analysts have lowered the forecast for 2023-2025 by 0.1-0.2 p.p. to 3.0%, 3.0% and 3.1%, respectively. According to their expectations, the unemployment rate will rise to 3.2% by the end of the forecast horizon.
Nominal wages: Analysts expect higher growth in 2023, at 13.0% (+0.7 p.p.) with growth slowing to 9.2% (+1.1 p.p.) in 2024, to 6.6% in 2025. The growth forecast for the end of the forecast horizon is +6.1%. Calculations based on analysts’ forecasts of nominal wages and average CPI suggest that real wages will increase by 6.6% in 2023, by 1.8% in 2024, by 2.0% in 2025 and by 1.9% in 2026. Accordingly, by the end of the forecast horizon real wages will be 13.2% higher than in 2021.
Consolidated budget balance: no significant changes. Analysts expect a gradual reduction of the consolidated budget deficit: to0% of GDP in 2023, to 1.5% of GDP in 2024, to 1.1% of GDP in 2025, and to 1.0% of GDP in 2026.
Exports of goods and services: No significant changes. Forecasts for 2023-2025 have been slightly lowered to $479bn (-$5bn) for 2023, to $505bn (-$3bn) for 2024, and to $515bn (-$3bn) for 2025. The forecast for the end of
31 RUSSIA Country Report February 2024 www.intellinews.com