Page 54 - bne magazine September 2023

54 I Eastern Europe bne September 2023
it comes to expanding the group. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva says it would undermine BRICS' authority.
After the expansion announcement, South Africa sought to play down fears of an aggressive BRICS+, especially
in the light of the inclusion of Iran, emphasising the grouping was not hostile to the West.
Anil Sooklal, South Africa’s BRICS sherpa, told reporters the group needs to change with the times. “This is what BRICS is saying, let’s be more inclusive. BRICS is not anti-West,” he said.
At the summit, the five BRICS leaders thrashed out a middle group and emphasised that the group wants to bring “diversity” to the world’s power
than 40 countries have expressed a desire to join BRICS, according to South Africa, which is hosting the BRICS summit. However, their names have not been released. Amongst those that have declared publicly that they want to join and have submitted a formal request are Algeria, Bangladesh, Egypt and Ethiopia.
From BRIC to BRICS to BRICS+
The original criteria for being a "BRIC" country, a term coined by legendary analyst Jim O’Neill in 2001, were very simple: be a big country, have a big population and have a lot of economic potential.
The BRIC group became a political organisation at its inaugural meeting in 2009 in Yekaterinburg in Russia. South Africa joined in 2010, adding the "S",
However, things changed in 2016, when Russia, along with other neutral oil producers, joined an expanded OPEC+ group to better control international oil prices. Since then relations between Riyadh and Moscow have improved dramatically.
Including Iran together with UAE
in the new BRICS+ bloc adds a permanent political dimension to the commercial institution that is OPEC+ and increases the control the emerging geopolitical challenger has over crucial raw materials, as bne IntelliNews
has followed in a series of "BRICS MATERIALS" articles.
Russia has invested a lot of effort
in building on the Soviet-era good relations held with the Middle East, and as one of the few countries that is on friendly terms with both Iraq and Iran, as well as Syria, Russia is seen as an honest broker in the region.
China has also invested heavily in
the region. In April, China, to a lot
of surprise, successfully brokered a rapprochement between KSA and
Iran. They had broken off diplomatic relations eight months earlier. Likewise, Syria returned to the Arab League in May after years of isolation.
Egypt is also an obvious choice for BRICS. It compliments South Africa well as together these two nations are the most prosperous in Africa. Cairo also has one foot in the Arab world, in addition to technically being an African country.
Egypt is heavily dependent on Moscow for oil, grain and other commodities and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has long since thrown his lot in with Putin. Sisi was co-host of Russia’s first Russia-Africa summit in Sochi in 2019 and was on stage with Putin at last year’s St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), as one of the few heads of state to make the effort to attend Russia's big event in the wake of the start of the war in Ukraine.
Ethiopia fits the same mould. It is the second most populous country in Africa after Nigeria and is also a close ally
“This is what BRICS is saying, let’s be more inclusive. BRICS is not anti-West”
structure “amid increasing polarisation.” That polarisation existed before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, as was seen in the trade war between the US under former president Donald Trump and Beijing, but the war in Ukraine has catalysed a fracture between the West and the Global South. China’s growing assertiveness in Southeast Asia and
the South China Sea has also rubbed relations between East and West raw.
While Brazil, South Africa and India would like to stay in the middle ground, Russia and China are attempting to bind them into a group that can oppose the West. Most smaller developing countries find themselves caught in an even more unpleasant position between the world’s powerful nations and are under pressure to pick sides, which they resist as best they can, trying to get the best deal they can from the competing nations.
Nevertheless, at least 23 other countries have applied for BRICS membership; many of them, like Russia and China, having been on the receiving end of US ire.
As bne IntelliNews has reported, more www.bne.eu
although by O’Neill’s criteria it should not have been able to as it is too small.
Looking at the new members, it is notable that the Middle East, which plays a smaller role in the Western- led institutions, is well represented, with the Kingdom of Saudia Arabia (KSA) being primus inter pares.
The UAE, meanwhile, has built up excellent relations with Russia in the past year and a half. It is home to a substantial number of rich Russians and their businesses that have left the motherland to escape sanctions.
Longstanding close ties between the US and KSA have soured in recent years since the shale revolution in America made the US self-dependent in oil and a rival to the KSA as it became a net exporter.
At the same time, Riyadh's relations with Russia have warmed; Moscow long resisted joining the OPEC cartel, led
by KSA, happy to piggyback on OPEC production cuts to drive up prices. The US has stayed outside of the cartel for the same reasons.