Page 55 - bne magazine September 2023

bne September 2023 Eastern Europe I 55
of Russia, depending on Moscow for commodities and for arms in its wars with neighbouring Eritrea.
“Ethiopia will become the third largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa, with GDP expected to reach $156.1 billion in 2023. At the same time, Ethiopia owes a debt of 13.7 billion dollars to China, which has invested 4.5 billion dollars in the construction of the Addis Ababa- Djibouti railway. This infrastructure
is part of China's BRI supply chain. Thus, China was very much in favour of Ethiopia's membership in the BRICS,” says political analysts and bne IntelliNews columnist Denis Cenusa.
Argentina was admitted at Brazil’s insistence. The country is Brazil’s largest trade partner and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has championed its cause as he sees it as a natural partner in South America. Argentina is important for both Brazil and Russia. In addition, there is an economic entanglement involving China. Brazil agreed to use the yuan as a payment currency for Brazilian exports to Argentina, its third trading partner, according to Cenusa.
"It is very important for Argentina to be in BRICS," Lula said in a live broadcast on social media from Johannesburg. That was the case despite the economic crisis the country is facing, Lula made
clear. The IMF recently struck a $44bn rescue deal with Argentina. Lula has criticised it as “suffocating”. He would like to see the New Development Bank (NDB, formerly known as the BRICS Bank) take up Argentina’s cause.
Iran is an important player for Russia which has pledged to invest in building transport infrastructure across the Caspian Sea to reduce the costs of trade in Russia's pivoting to Asia due to decoupling from the West. Iran is also on good terms with China, according to Cenusa.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are key players in the energy sector and having them on board will benefit all the BRICS, whether they
are energy-hungry or willing to have an additional geopolitical platform to coordinate energy production policies.
“China, India and Russia are close to Saudi Arabia for very different reasons. Separately, UAE companies are also suspected of helping Russia circumvent sanctions by exporting banned products and becoming a safe place for the Russian capital fleeing the country,” according to Cenusa.
Egypt's imports from China amounted to $14.4bn in 2022, twice as much as in 2017; it runs a huge trade deficit with exports of just $1.8bn. Egypt also has
deep ties to Russia: Russians make up 40% of all tourists; the wheat Egypt imports is almost entirely Russian.
Notable absences from the short list of new members include Indonesia, by far the most populous country in SE Asia after China, and Vietnam, with both countries close allies of Moscow in
the region.
Algeria and Bangladesh were also obvious candidates for inclusion in the group. Bangladesh is already a member of the NDB. What was dubbed “the bottomless basket” by Henry Kissinger is now the bull economy of the Pacific Rim, where per capita incomes recently overtook those of India.
The US has sought to play down the growth of the BRICS group as a supposed rival to its power. Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, told reporters that the Biden administration is “not looking at the BRICS as evolving into some kind of geopolitical rival to the United States or anyone else”.
He said that the United States had “strong positive” relations with Brazil, India and South Africa, adding that “we will continue to manage our relationship with China; and we will continue to push back on Russia’s aggression,” The New York Times reported.
More stories on BRICS+
+ JoiningBRICSisabigwin for Iran
+ WhatbenefitswillIranreap from BRICS+ membership?
+ Indonesiasays“notnow”to BRICS membership offer
+ Theflourishingintra-BRICS oil trade
+ Chinatobuildanuclear power plant in Saudi Arabia
+ Topholdersoflithium resources clamour to join BRICS
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