Page 84 - SE Outlook Regions 2023

Socialist Party’s parliamentary group, Taulant Balla, said in October that
2022 has been a “good year for agriculture” despite the war in Ukraine,
with efforts to find new export markets paying off.

Alongside traditional agricultural sectors, the government plans to
legalise medical cannabis cultivation. Opposition politicians fiercely
oppose the plan, pointing to Albania’s problem with illegal cannabis
cultivation, which was once estimated to account for as much as half
the country’s GDP.

3.2 Real economy - Bosnia & Herzegovina

3.2.1 Retail

Bosnia’s retail sales rose by 10% y/y in volume terms in Q322, losing
momentum from 16.2% in H1 and 17.1% y/y in 2021, according to the
latest available statistics office data. For the entire January-September
period, retail sales rose by 14% y/y — still very impressive compared to
the 4% GDP growth envisaged for the year.

A threat to Bosnia's buoyant retail sales is inflation, which is eroding
both domestic income and remittances. The slowdown in sales was
caused in Q3 by the subdued sales of car fuels, which advanced by
only 2.9% y/y after the 22.9% y/y surge in H1 (and 22% y/y in 2021).

Bosnia’s state Directorate for Economic Planning (DEP) expects that in
2023-2025 the employment rate will increase thanks to the expected
stabilisation of the international situation, which could boost retail sales.
The number of employed people in Bosnia in 2023 could rise by 1.5%
y/y, while wages should also rise, by around 3.1%.

84 SE Outlook 2023 www.intellinews.com