Page 144 - RusRPTMar23

9.1.1c Gas sector news
Russia may reduce gas production by almost 8% y/y in 2023, according to the report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) on the gas market.
This year, export of Russian pipeline gas to Europe, which last year fell to a minimum since the mid-1980s, may decrease by another 40% or stop altogether, the agency says.
Russia’s piped gas exports to OECD Europe fell by an estimated 50% (83 bcm) y/y in 2022, to their lowest level since the mid-1980s. While deliveries to Turkey declined by 18% y/y, gas supplies to the European Union more than halved, translating into a drop of 78 bcm compared with 2021.
In 2023, if deliveries to the EU remain at current levels, Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe will decrease by another 40% (by 30bn cubic metres) compared to 2022, the IEA predicts.
Gas production in Russia this year, according to IEA estimates, may decrease by about 8% - to 620bn cubic metres from 672bn cubic metres in 2022.
Pipeline supplies from Norway to the EU in 2022 increased by 3% (by 4bn cubic metres), gas supplies from Azerbaijan increased by 40% (by 3bn cubic metres). In the meantime, gas supplies from North Africa decreased by 10% (by 4bn cubic metres). LNG imports by Europe soared by 60% to about 170bn cubic metres, which was the highest level in the history of observations.
In 2023, European countries may further increase their LNG imports, but growth will be limited to only 3% due to the projected strong growth in demand in China and may not be sufficient to meet Europe’s demands.
Gas reserves in European underground gas storage (UGS) facilities have fallen below 64%, while withdrawal from them has dropped to the lowest level since 2012 as of February 21. That said, requests for transit of Russian gas through Ukrainian territory have risen by another 2.8% to 40.3mn cubic metres, which is the highest level since January 3. Gas withdrawal from EU countries’ UGS facilities only amounted to 216mn cubic metres on February 19, the lowest level in 12 years, according to data provided by Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE). Meanwhile, the pumping into them amounted to 85mn cubic metres. The heating season started in Europe on November 14. Since then, EU countries have withdrawn 39.12bn cubic metres of gas from UGS facilities. Currently European UGS facilities are roughly 63.95% full (20.84 percentage points higher than the average as of this date in the past five years), with 69.2bn cubic metres of gas stored in them.
Russian gas transit through Ukraine to Europe increased by 5%.
According to the GTS Operator of Ukraine, Gazprom's application for gas transit on February 8 amounted to 30.8 million cubic metres, compared to 29.4
144 RUSSIA Country Report March 2023 www.intellinews.com