Page 169 - RusRPTMar23

approximately 3,000 jobs, providing a significant boost to the local economy. The project is expected to commence construction in the months of April to June, with the distribution and storage centre being built in the special economic zone in the Southern Urals city of Orenburg.
● Wildberries
Wildberries reported its FY22 GMV up 98% YoY to RUB1,669bn. Key
points:
1. In 4Q GMV growth accelerated slightly to 103% from 95% in 3Q. 2H22 growth was ~100%, materially above WB’s expectation of ~68% communicated in the middle of the year. We believe this underscores a continuing strong structural growth of the Russian e-commerce market and provides a positive read-across for Ozon, with the risks to our 4Q GMV growth forecast of 63% skewed to the upside.
2. In 2022 WB invested RUB249bn in various discounts for customers (+38% YoY). December’s investments grew by 171% YoY to RUB46.6bn, suggesting more aggressive behaviour towards the end of the year. We also expect to see growth acceleration but higher losses at Yandex’s e-commerce division in its 4Q results later today, so higher investments seem to be a theme for market leaders in the recent months. As such, our 4Q adj. EBITDA margin forecast of 0.9% for Ozon (in line with 3Q) could prove too optimistic.
3. WB invested RUB28bn in logistics infrastructure last year. According to the company, its total warehouse space grew by 2mn m2 and exceeded 2.7mn at the end of 2022. This compares to Ozon’s 1.3mn m2 capacity as of 3Q. We note there could be differences in methodology, while RUB28bn capex for 2mn m2 added space looks low, however WB appears to have significantly strengthened its supply chain during capabilities last year.
On our estimates, Ozon currently trades on 0.24x EV/GMV 2023, significantly below its historic levels and international peers.
● Other
Goldman Sachs has sold its entire stake in Cian, according to a filing made by the company. The sale follows the acquisition of a 9.4% stake in Cian by Broomfield International Limited, but it is not clear whether Broomfield is linked to Goldman Sachs. However, recent reports indicate that Goldman Sachs has
169 RUSSIA Country Report March 2023 www.intellinews.com