Page 94 - RusRPTApr24

7.0 FX
RUSSIA -FX
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
4Q23
1Q24
Currency (units per EUR) (eop)
88.8
86.4
87.6
90.5
56.2
56.5
78.9
79.2
90.4
82.8
84.2
Currency (units per USD) (eop)
73.8
73.4
73.6
81.8
53.1
58.9
74.0
73.6
83.5
77.0
78.0
Currency (units per EUR) (average)
89.4
86.4
87.9
99.4
73.0
86.8
64.3
78.5
88.5
77.1
81.4
Currency (units per USD) (average)
74.2
73.0
73.6
88.9
68.4
77.0
63.0
73.3
81.2
72.5
75.6
source: CBR
The ruble exchange rate remains fairly stable, without putting pressure on prices. In February - early March, against the backdrop of adaptation to changes in the conditions for conducting transactions with Chinese counterparties, factors of a shortage of foreign exchange liquidity in the yuan intensified, which affected local interest rates on the money market. Another topic discussed was the possible impact of the election cycle on the foreign exchange market. However, we saw no signs of a change in the exchange rate trend; average levels remained close to fair value, determined by current foreign trade conditions. At the same time, exchange rate dynamics had intra-month volatility, traditional for the last year. The current account surplus in the balance of payments in January-February was quite stable (USD 4.5–5.2 billion per month), similar to the levels in October-November. We expect the ruble exchange rate to remain close to current levels in the coming months, unless geopolitical risks materialize.
Delays in payment for Russian oil through banks in China, Turkey and the UAE began to count for months, Reuters learned. Due to fears of secondary sanctions, they began to require written guarantees that no person or entity on the US SDN list is involved in the transaction or is not a beneficiary of the payment.
The publication mentions the largest banks in Turkey - Ziraat and Vakifbank, the UAE - First Abu Dhabi Bank, Dubai Islamic Bank and Mashreq, Chinese ICBC and Bank of China.
Complex compliance not only slows down transactions in itself, but also
94 RUSSIA Country Report April 2024 www.intellinews.com