Page 14 - Caucasus Outlook 2025

trade remained robust, with exports and imports showing significant growth, particularly with Russia and emerging partners such as the UAE. The re-exports of sanctioned Western goods through Armenia to Russia remained an important issue.
The Armenian dram appreciated against the US dollar, contributing to a favorable investment environment but posing challenges for exporters.
Main source: Armstat, Armenia Statistical Yearbook 2021 Others hyperlinked in category
Key economic figures and forecasts
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 9.065 9.954 10.764 11.705 11.058 12.345 14.567 16.123
Real GDP (% y/y) 0.2 7.5 5.2 7.6 -7.6 5.7 12.6 8.7
Industrial output (% y/y) 16.6 5.6 7.9 0.0 3.3 7.8 6.5
Unemployment rate (avg, %) 17.6 17.7 19.0 18.8 20.2 18.5 15.3 13.8
Consumer prices (avg, % y/y) 3.7 -0.1 -1.1 3.0 7.2 8.6 2.0
Consumer prices (eop, % y/y)
General budget balance (% of -5.5 -4.8 -1.6 -0.8 -5.1 -3.1 -2.5 GDP)
Public debt (% of GDP) 51.4 58.4 51.0 50.0 64.0 56.5 53.0
Current account balance (% of -1.0 -1.5 -6.9 -7.2 -3.1 -4.4 -2.9 -3.5 GDP)
Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 94.4 91.3 87.6 90.3 102.3 95.7 88.9 85.0
EUR/LC (avg) 531.9 545.1 570.6 537.9 558.4 597.3 460.97 424
USD/LC (avg) 480.5 482.7 483.0 480.4 489.0 504.4 392.34 392.476
Source: Thomson Reuters, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
2.2.1 GDP growth
The Armenian government's state budget projected GDP growth of 7% for the year, while the Central Bank of Armenia expected growth in the range of 5.3% to 6.4%. Forecasts from international organisations varied. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
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