Page 5 - Caucasus Outlook 2025

intensified, with journalists from outlets such as Meydan TV detained on questionable charges, drawing international criticism.
Efforts to resolve the long-standing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan continued after the 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh war, which displaced 100,000 ethnic Armenians. While most of a draft peace agreement had been finalised by December, it remained unsigned. Baku has focused on post-conflict reconstruction in Karabakh, now fully under Azerbaijan’s control, allocating significant resources to infrastructure and renewable energy projects.
Across the region, economic growth remained strong. In Georgia, GDP growth for 2024 was projected at 8.5% by the European Commission. Although growth is expected to moderate in 2025 and 2026, it is likely to remain robust. However, domestic political instability and challenges to EU integration may dampen business and consumer confidence.
Azerbaijan’s economic performance in 2024 was mixed, with strong growth in the non-oil sector offset by challenges such as inflation and fiscal pressures. Real GDP grew by 4.1% year on year in the first 11 months, with the non-oil sector expanding by 6.4%, while the oil and gas sector saw modest growth of 0.4%. Key industries included manufacturing, trade and transport.
Armenia’s economy also showed resilience, with GDP reaching $25.41bn and a per capita figure of $9,150. Real GDP growth stood at 7.5%, driven by robust domestic demand and increased metal exports.
5 Caucasus Outlook 2025 www.intellinews.com