Page 9 - Caucasus Outlook 2025

Conference and continued its post-conflict reconstruction efforts, concerns arose regarding the government's crackdown on independent media and civil society.
2024 began with the re-election of Ilham Aliyev as president for a fifth term, securing over 92% of the vote in an election criticised by international observers for its lack of genuine competition and suppression of critical voices. This victory solidified the long-standing rule of Aliyev and his family, who have held a tight grip on power since 2003. However, the election was marred by reports of connectivity issues in Baku and other parts of the country, potentially hindering freedom of information and raising concerns about the fairness of the electoral process. These issues, specifically reported by Nar and Bakcell subscribers, involved difficulties in transferring visual and audio content via WhatsApp, despite no official indication of the application being blocked. While the Central Election Commission denied any connectivity problems, the Ministry of Digital Development and Transport remained silent on the matter.
Amidst these political developments, Azerbaijan focused on post-conflict reconstruction efforts in the Karabakh region. The government allocated AZN12bn ($7.1bn) from the state budget for reconstruction in 2021-2023, with an additional AZN4bn allocated in the 2024 budget. These funds were earmarked for restoring essential infrastructure, including road, rail, electricity, gas, water and communications networks. The government also prioritised investments in the education and healthcare sectors, alongside the restoration of cultural and historical monuments. Furthermore, Azerbaijan pursued green energy projects in the region as part of its broader commitment to renewable energy development.
Simultaneously, Azerbaijan sought to bolster its international image by hosting COP29 in November. The conference, themed "In Solidarity for a Green World", aimed to showcase the nation's commitment to renewable energy and climate action. However, human rights groups raised concerns about the government's use of the event to deflect attention from its human rights record and crackdown on dissent.
In 2024, Azerbaijan adopted an assertive foreign policy stance, particularly towards Western countries that expressed support for Armenia. This assertiveness was most evident in its relations with France, which had repeatedly demonstrated its support for Armenia, including through military means. In January, following the French Senate's near-unanimous adoption of a resolution calling for sanctions against Azerbaijan, the Azerbaijani parliament responded by recommending retaliatory measures against France. This included instructing the foreign ministry to take steps towards recognising the independence of a number of French territories.
These tensions escalated further when the French government accused Azerbaijan of fomenting unrest in New Caledonia in May, where separatist groups displayed Azerbaijani flags during riots 1. Perceived bias from France and other EU member states in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict led to Azerbaijan scrapping a planned meeting between President Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol
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