Page 15 - RusRPTFeb23

If $44 per barrel of oil was the “balancing point” when the budget rule kicked in then the new balancing point in the new regime is RUB8 trillion of oil and gas revenues.
This assumes Russian oil production of 9mn barrels a day, the forecast for this year and a fall from the 11mbpd Russia was producing on the day before the war started, that fell to just under 10mbpd in the autumn of last year and then dropped to around 9mbpd at the end of 2022.
Analysts expect that the Ministry of Finance will be forced to sell foreign currency in the coming months as a result of the new rule. But all the experts interviewed by The Bell said the new budget rule will again begin to smooth out fluctuations in the exchange rate.
2.5 Russian seaborne crude oil exports down 9% in the first month of the EU embargo
Seaborne crude oil Russian exports dropped by 9% in the first month of the European Union's embargo and the introduction of the oil price cap scheme on December 5 to well below 3mn barrels a day -- their lowest level in 15 months -- according to data compiled by Anadolu.
In response to the price cap, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree at the end of December banning crude oil and oil products supply to nations that apply the cap either “directly or indirectly” starting from February 1 for five months.
At the same time the discount buyers command for Russia’s Ural’s blend has mushroomed to 35%. Oil sold from the Primorsk port on the Baltic Sea have been reported to have fallen as low as $37 according to reports.
Analysts speculate that exports will recover somewhat in the coming months as the markets find ways around the embargo and the discounts will likewise narrow. Following the imposition of sanctions shortly after the war in Ukraine started Russian oil exports also slumped and the discount grew to 30%, but within a few months, tempted by the big discounts on offer, new buyers were found in Asia and exports recovered while the discount shrank to single digits.
Even with depressed exports, India with 1.3mn barrels a day remained the top importer of Russian crude in December. China's seaborne crude imports from Russia remained steady at 950,000 barrels a day in the same period. Together, the countries accounted for 82% of Russia's daily seaborne crude exports last month.
In addition to India and China, Russian crude oil exports to other nations in Asia, such as South Korea and Japan, are also increasing, the data shows. However, European countries such as Italy and the Netherlands have significantly cut their imports of Russian seaborne crude oil.
15 RUSSIA Country Report February 2023 www.intellinews.com