Page 18 - UKRRptOct18

oligarchs and conflict of interests between politicians and business. In fifth place was the military conflict with Russia.
3.0 Macro Economy
Main Macro indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018F
Business cycle indicators
Real GDP, chg yoy
2.30%
-14.80%
4.10%
5.20%
0.20%
0.00%
-6.60%
-9.80%
2.30%
2.50%
3.40%
Household consumption, chg yoy
11.80%
-14.90%
7.10%
15.70%
8.40%
6.90%
-8.30%
-20.70%
1.80%
7.80%
6.10%
Investments in fixed capital, chg yoy
1.60%
-50.50%
3.90%
7.10%
5.00%
-6.70%
-24.00%
-9.20%
20.10%
18.20%
12.00%
Industrial output, chg yoy
-5.20%
-21.90%
11.20%
8.00%
-0.70%
-4.30%
-10.10%
-13.00%
2.80%
0.40%
3.50%
Nominal GDP, UAH bln
948
913
1,079
1,300
1,405
1,465
1,587
1,989
2,383
2 983
3516
Nominal GDP, USD bln
180
117
136
163
176
183
134
91
93
112
131
GDP per capita, USD
3,891
2,550
2,972
3,580
3,865
4,030
3,117
2,134
2,193
2 638
3086
CPI (eop)
22.30%
12.30%
9.10%
4.60%
-0.20%
0.50%
24.90%
43.30%
12.40%
13.70%
8.90%
CPI average
25.20%
15.90%
9.40%
8.00%
0.60%
-0.30%
12.10%
48.70%
13.90%
14.40%
11.90%
Unemployment (ILO methodology, avg)
6.90%
9.60%
8.90%
8.70%
8.20%
7.80%
9.70%
9.50%
9.70%
9.50%
8.80%
Source: SP Advisors
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Ukraine's state statistics service Ukrstat has revised upwards the nation's GDP growth from 3.6% year-on-year in April-June to 3.8% y/y , Ukrstat reported on September 18.
Nominal GDP was UAH807.3bn (vs UAH664.76bn in the second quarter of 2017), the deflator's change was 17% (20.9%) in April-June. GDP per capita, according to statistics data, in April-June this year rose to UAH19,074, in real terms by 4.3% y/y.
According to Ukrstat state statistics service, the country’s real GDP rose by 3.1% y/y in January-March, or 0.9% quarter-on-quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis. The NBU believes that the forecast of 2018 real GDP growth of 3.4% y/y is still relevant.
In July, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) revised the nation's 2019 GDP growth forecast to 2.5% year-on-year (vs 2.9% y/y in the previous forecast) due to the waning effects of higher social standards, the tight monetary conditions required to bring inflation back to its target, as well as tight fiscal policy resulting from the need to repay large volumes of public debt.
18 UKRAINE Country Report October 2018 www.intellinews.com