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In 2020, the real economy is expected to grow by 2.9% y/y. "Private consumption, additionally supported by rising remittances thanks to an increase in the number of labour migrants, will remain the main driver of economic growth in the medium-term," the NBU believes.
Meanwhile, investment growth will be restrained by businesses’ higher labour costs. However, the contribution of net exports will remain negative over the forecast horizon, as imports will satisfy a significant portion of domestic demand and capital investment needs, according to the regulator.
3.2 Macro outlook
Ukraine’s GDP will grow by 3% this year, and by 3.6% in 2019, Stepan Kubiv, Economic Development and Trade Minister, told an international economic forum Tuesday in Krynica, a mountain resort town in southern Poland. He added: “In the medium term, we set the goal to achieve at least 5-7% growth.” In the first half of 2018, Ukraine’s exports to Poland grew by 30.5%, hitting $1.7bn.
The Nord Stream-2 Ukraine bypass pipeline could cut 2.5-3% off the country's GDP , the Finance Ministry calculates. Scheduled to be fully operational in 2020, the direct Russia-Germany pipeline would make Ukraine’s gas transportation system redundant. At the United Nations on September 25, President Trump warned that constructions of the pipeline would leave Germany vulnerable to “extortion and intimidation” by Russia. Trump said: “Germany will become totally dependent on Russian energy if it does not immediately change course.” It is not clear if Trump will try sanctions to block construction. Russia says it will finance the entire project if Washington tries to block it.
Ukraine: Key economic figures and forecasts
19 UKRAINE Country Report October 2018 www.intellinews.com