Page 25 - UKRRptOct18

4.4.3 Retail sector dynamics
Ukraine’s retail sales increased 5.4% year-on-year in real terms in January-August , slowing from 6% growth in January-July, Ukraine’s state statistics service Ukrstat reported on September 20. In August alone, real retail sales picked up 5.7% month-on-month and 7.5% y/y (vs. a 3.7% m/m and 6.6% y/y rise in July). Regionally, the highest retail growth occurred in January-August in Ukraine-controlled Luhansk and Donetsk (27.9% y/y and 13.3% y/y respectively) and Poltava (10.8%) regions. It was slowest in the Chernivtsi (0.8%), Kharkiv (0.9%) and Khmelnytskiy (1.0%) regions. Evgeniya Akhtyrko at Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital believes that retail trade to accelerate through the year end, supporting economic growth. She expects real retail sales to grow 7-8% y/y in 2018.
5.0 External Sector & Trade
Balance of payments
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018F
Current account balance, USD bln
-12.8
-1.7
-3
-10.2
-14.3
-16.5
-5.3
-1
-3.5
-2.1
-2.8
% GDP
-7.10%
-1.50%
-2.20%
-6.30%
-8.10%
-9.00%
-4.00%
-1.10%
-3.70%
-1.90%
-2.10%
Financial account balance, USD bln
9.7
-12
8
7.8
10.1
18.5
-8
0.8
4.7
4.7
2
% GDP
5.40%
-10.20%
5.90%
4.80%
5.80%
10.10%
-6.10%
0.90%
5.00%
4.20%
1.50%
FDI net, USD bln
9.9
4.7
5.8
7
6.6
3.4
0.3
2.5
3.3
1.2
2
% of GDP
5.50%
4.00%
4.20%
4.30%
3.80%
1.80%
0.20%
2.80%
3.50%
1.10%
1.50%
Gross NBU reserves (eop), USD bln
31.5
26.5
34.6
31.8
24.5
20.4
7.5
13.3
15.5
18.8
19
25 UKRAINE Country Report October 2018 www.intellinews.com