Page 49 - RusRPTAug22

3.0 Macro Economy 3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Russia doing better than expected despite sanctions. International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told AFP in an interview that higher energy prices are keeping Russia afloat despite Western sanctions. And while the IMF has upgraded Russia's GDP estimate by 2.5 percentage points, its economy is expected to shrink by 6 percent. "That's still a fairly sizable recession in Russia in 2022," Gourinchas said.
Russia’s GDP decreased 4.9% y/y in June, according to the Economic Ministry. The estimate reflects still uneven transformation among Russian industries.
“Rosstat data suggests that some moderation in economic contraction was driven by a 2.3% y/y growth in mining sector, following a c1% decline in May; and still sustainable 2.1% y/y growth in agriculture. At the same time, the contraction in manufacturing accelerated in June to 4.5% y/y vs 3.2% y/y in May. Construction, which was one the key drivers of the Russian economic activity in April-May, showed sideways trend in June, with only 0.1% y/y growth,” said Natalia Lavrova, an economist with BCS GM.
“Consumption remained unchanged, with retail trade volumes posting c10% y/y decline for the last three months. This decline was mainly driven by a c16% drop in retail trade in the non-food segment, while consumption in food
49 RUSSIA Country Report October 2020 www.intellinews.com