Page 66 - RusRPTAug22

4.5 Labour and income
4.5.1 Labour market, unemployment dynamics
For a second month, unemployment remained at a record low of 3.9%. In absolute terms, unemployment numbers for June were 3 million. And that’s not due to any manipulation of the figures: there have been no significant lay-offs, according to Renaissance Capital’s chief economist for Russia and the CIS, Sofia Donets. But there has been a redistribution of the workforce. Migrants are leaving (this means more jobs for Russians) and the brain drain is accelerating. A rise in unemployment could occur in the fall, Donets warned, as companies continue to exit Russia.
Concerns about rising unemployment risk. On June 21st, the head of the Ministry of Labour, Anton Kotyakov , announced an increase “in tension” in the labour market. According to him, the number of registered unemployed in Russia increased in June, but Kotyakov did not name the exact figures. On the same day, Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry However, private sector agencies are less optimistic. According to the Centre for Strategic Research (CSR), foreign business in Russia accounts for about two million jobs. The CSR believes that the withdrawal of foreign companies will endanger at least 350,000 jobs.
“We will see some increase in unemployment towards the end of the year as many companies leave and staff will enter the market, but next year, given the poor demographics, demand will start to recover. The second scenario is that unemployment will remain at a sufficiently high level for Russia for several years, and this is due to structural changes in the labour market,” said Alexei Mironov, Vice President for Operational Management at ANCOR Human Resources
66 RUSSIA Country Report October 2020 www.intellinews.com