Page 68 - RusRPTAug22

consumer sentiment. (chart) The start of the war with Ukraine in February caused a shock and in dollar terms wages fell to $546 in March based on the average exchange rate for that month.
As followed by bne IntelliNews, the focus shifted on Russian macro statistics post-military invasion of Ukraine. While the consensus recession outlook on Russia for 2022 improved, some warned that the resilience is unevenly distributed and is skewed towards commodity exports.
The analysts surveyed by The Bell attribute the unexpectedly good real income results in 2Q22 to the “extraordinary” indexation of pensions and the subsistence wage of June 1, as well as redistributing insurance payments for employers to employee social funds. These external support factors to disposable income risk delaying the structural decline that might overshoot on the downside in the near term, they believe. Still, unemployment in Russia is at a record low for the second month running (3.9% of the workforce), with the number of registered unemployed at 3mn Russians in June.
4.5.3 Retail sector dynamics
Consumer demand remains low: in June, retail sales were down 9%. However, allowing for seasonal factors, this represents the first month-on-month increase since February — the main driver was an increased demand for non-food products. Paid services were
68 RUSSIA Country Report October 2020 www.intellinews.com