Page 6 - TURKRptFeb20

2.0 Politics
2.1 Snap elections are looking very likely
A failure to rebuild economic credibility could prove fatal for Turkish strongman Erdogan but this wily operator will meanwhile do all he can to distract the electorate with other issues.
Erdogan’s popularity sinking . O pinion polling is rather unreliable in Turkey but there are enough pointers to conclude that there is a good case that Erdogan’s popularity with voters has sunk below 40%.
The anger felt towards Erdogan and his son-in-law Finance Minister Berat Albayrak is growing as they fail to acknowledge the extent of the crisis and talked up even modest signs of recovery as if the country was turning the corner.
It seems the Erdogan administration was not averse to entirely running Turkey as a banana republic, but that course has proven a dramatic failure.
Keeping Turks distracted with nationalistic military adventure is a tough proposition under economic woes. The government is cracking down on the media and attempting to put the lid on anything else that might bring the economic troubles into focus. Cheaper money seems to be the name of their only substantial game, but how can an unemployed person already struggling with a debt overload benefit from bank loans?
Rebels in governing Justice and Development (AKP) party, the emerging Future Party formed by his former right-hand man and ex-PM Ahmet Davutoglu and a new party being put together by another ex-ally, former economy czar Ali Babacan as well as Istanbul ‘revote’ victor Ekrem Imamoglu are just some of Erdogan’s opponents. The serious illness of ‘spare tire’ Bahceli also helps to produce a clock now loudly ticking on his hold on power.
Davutoglu may grab a few points from Erdogan among the electorate while Babacan is seen as having the potential to take a maximum 10% share of the vote, or perhaps a little more. It’s a double-horned dilemma—Erdogan has little chance of reducing Davutoglu and Babacan’s vote shares to inconsequential figures, while at the same time he must crucially direct his main attention to the alliance led by main opposition party CHP, and, very likely, eventually Imamoglu. There are those in the Iyi Party that would consider a deal with Erdogan but the party’s voter base would not allow it, and Iyi is anyway demanding a shift back to a parliamentary republic.
6 TURKEY Country Report OUTLOOK 2020 www.intellinews.com