Page 8 - TURKRptFeb20

Erdogan signed the Sochi agreement with Russia and Iran to take responsibility for the Idlib jihadists. Russia has so far conducted controlled advances across the northern region. The situation might flare up at any time but it currently appears that this approach will continue through 2020. As for the parts in the northeast, invaded by Erdogan, it presently seems he will stay there for the foreseeable future.
Feeble EU . The limp response from Europe so far to Turkey’s persistent offshore drilling for gas and oil in what EU member Cyprus claims is its exclusive economic zone is a good example of how useless the eurocrats have become in keeping the Turks on the straight and narrow. There is no gas on the side of Cyprus facing Turkey but Erdogan can make plenty of helpful domestic political noise by aggressively pursuing a share of the resources claimed by the Greek Cypriots for the Turkish Cypriots and Ankara.
More such noise comes from Erdogan’s backing for the UN-recognised Libya administration of Fayez al-Serraj in the face of anti-government forces led by Khalifa Haftar in eastern Libya, known as the Libyan National Army (LNA), which have received support from Russia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. As things stand, it seems unlikely Erdogan will experience either a great triumph or big self-inflicted wound in Libya. Noise it will likely remain.
2.3 Official growth to come at about 5%, so why are so many Turks suicidal?
Make no mistake, the economic situation faced by ordinary Turks is wretched. Erdogan has reached for the sugar of cheaper money. The sheer pace of monetary easing has set off alarm bells at the IMF.
Turkey’s official data series are widely regarded as a bad joke, but mainstream analysis, along with planning and pricing, nevertheless remain tethered to the TUIK figures.
The connections between growth and initial indicators such as industrial production and retail sales have been lost. It is a move past the 50-level that is supposed to indicate a recovery in the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data but PMI compiler IHS Markit has bowed to the Turkish distortions. In its charts, a score of 45 is now enough for the TUIK to signal a recovery in the industrial production data, even though there is no connection between industrial production and manufacturing output in the GDP figures and the monthly industrial production data releases.
8 TURKEY Country Report OUTLOOK 2020 www.intellinews.com