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respect, Russia far outstrips China, which is bereft of major raw material resources, although it has become a world leader in the processing of exotic materials such as rare earths that are key in any number of industries.
Russia is amongst the world’s biggest producers of oil, gas, grain, timber and a wide variety of metals that are hard to source elsewhere, such as titanium. It is also a major producer of uranium, but like China, it has also become the leading refiner of uranium to make U235, the nuclear fuel. Both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are major sources of uranium, but neither of them has any refining capacity and rely on Russia.
Russia’s ability to affect oil prices by limiting production, and to throttle things like aviation and EV development by restricting the export of titanium or copper, gives it enormous market power. Its importance to the global nuclear fuel market means that the West has so far shied away from imposing sanctions on Russia’s nuclear business.
“In 2019, Russia was the world’s second-largest producer of platinum, cobalt and vanadium, the third-largest producer of gold and nickel, the fourth-largest producer of silver and phosphates, the fifth-largest producer of iron ore, and the sixth-largest producer of uranium and lead. The main product of Russian agriculture is cereals; Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat and the largest producer of barley, buckwheat, oats and rye, as well as the second-largest producer of sunflower seeds,” says Sapir. “Of course, Russia is the world’s largest exporter of gas (and has the world’s largest reserves) and the second-largest exporter of crude oil. This gives Russia, beyond its industrial capacities, a central position in the raw materials trade, a position that explains its alliance with China. Any interruption or sharp reduction in trade with Russia is likely to cause major disruptions in commodity markets.”
2.2 CBR upgrades GDP forecast to 2.5% for next three years and a return to stable growth
The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has substantially upgraded its growth outlook for the next two years raising the upper band for its group outlook in 2024 to 2.5% from 1.6% and to 2% in 2025 from 1.5%, the regulator said on August 11.
The CBR has constantly increased it estimates over the year as the impact of extreme sanctions on Russia have failed to do as much damage as firsrt feared. The International Financial Institutions (IFIs) have also regularly upgraded their outlooks as well.
The CBR projects that improvements in the country's economy will persist through 2024–2025, followed by a return to a “stable growth trajectory” of 1.5–2.5% in 2026, the regulator said on in a report on key monetary policy areas for the years 2024–2026, published on August 11.
RUSSIA Country Report September 2023 www.intellinews.com