Page 16 - RusRPTSept23

The ruble has lost nearly half its value since the start of the war as the ruble dollar exchange rate approaches RUB100 from around RUB60 shortly after the start of the Ukraine war in 2022.
The ruble's performance, now influenced mainly by the balance between foreign currency demand from importers and supply from exporters, is less dependent on capital flows in the new scenario, the CBR said.
Addressing limits on ruble transfers abroad, the central bank emphasised that mutual agreements with China would be necessary for easing these limits.
The central bank plans to segregate the standard liquidity provision mechanism to banks into core and additional components in 2023. Fund-raising terms for banks will be contingent upon transaction goals.
In terms of risk scenarios, the central bank highlights the heightened fractured nature of the world and the potential for a crisis akin to the 2008 one. The statement outlines potential consequences such as countries producing goods domestically, limiting competitors' access to technology, and forming partnerships based on geographical proximity and geopolitical affinity.
2.3 Russia uses shipping costs to beat $60 oil price caps
Recent revelations about Russia's oil shipping practices to India have raised questions about pricing and potential overcharging. According to data from Kpler, approximately 108mn barrels of oil were shipped from the Baltic to India between May and July in 134 vessels.
During this period, the spread between Argus prices, a key pricing benchmark, averaged $17 per barrel. However, commercial shipping rates, calculated at an average of $9 per barrel, indicate a potential overcharging of around $800mn.
Concerns are growing that the difference between these pricing figures could be benefiting Russian entities, whether they own the tankers involved in the transactions or not.
Around 40% of the oil shipped from the Baltic during in the three months to July was carried by vessels connected to Russia. Of the 134 vessels identified by Kpler, 23 have been directly linked to Russian entities, while another 26 "ghost" vessels have been traced to new owners with hidden ownership structures linked to Russia.
The freight cost estimates calculated by Argus imply that this fleet may have earned more than $350mn in revenue on the route over the quarter. Adding the $800mn by which fees were inflated, this means that Russian entities may have covertly made $1bn dollars more in revenue over that period than previously recognised, the Financial Times reports. India now accounts for around a quarter of Russia’s crude and refined oil exports. Russia’s global oil exports amounted to $39bn in total over these three months, according to
RUSSIA Country Report September 2023 www.intellinews.com