Page 63 - RusRPTSept23

of International Finance (IIF). “In H1 '19, China's exports to Russia and Central Asia were $34 bn. In H1 2023 this number was $83 bn. That totally swamps the reduction in US exports from $4 bn in H1 2019 to $2 bn in H1 2023.”
This year, Russia's export earnings have declined sharply from last year's peak. According to preliminary data from the Central Bank of Russia, the value of goods exports in January-June was one-third lower than a year earlier. Export income has been cut especially by the drop in raw material prices. In addition, the volume of Russian natural gas exports has decreased sharply because Russia has stopped supplying pipeline gas to most EU countries. However, the value of goods exports is nowhere near its historical lows, but at the same level as, for example, in the first half of 2019. According to the estimate of the international energy organization IEA, the average price of Urals oil in January-June was 48 dollars per barrel, or about 40% lower than a year earlier. In January-June, the export volume of Russian crude oil decreased by about 4% y/y.
The combined export volume of crude oil and oil products remained at the same level as a year earlier in January-June. Almost 60% of Russia's total oil exports (crude oil and oil products) go to China and India. However, the volume of Russian oil exports has declined and the export price of Urals oil has increased recently. According to the IEA's estimate, Russia produced even slightly less oil in July than would have been possible within the framework of the OPEC+ agreement. Russia has also announced that it will reduce oil exports in August and September. The IEA estimates that the price of Urals oil rose to more than 60 dollars in July and even more than 70 dollars per barrel at the beginning of August. The prices of all oil grades have risen in recent weeks, but the price difference between Urals and other oil grades has also narrowed.
Within the framework of the price cap system set by the G7 countries and the EU for Russian oil, companies from the countries participating in the system cannot offer e.g. transportation and insurance services for sea transportation of
RUSSIA Country Report September 2023 www.intellinews.com