Page 64 - RusRPTSept23

Russian oil if the price paid for oil exceeds 60 dollars per barrel. According to the IEA, in recent months approximately 70% of Russian crude oil transports have used the transport or insurance services of companies from the G7 countries.
Russian imports have gradually recovered from their sharp fall in spring 2022. According to preliminary data from the Central Bank of Russia, the (seasonally adjusted) value of goods imports has in recent months been at the same level as in 2021 on average, but still slightly lower than in the months before the war. According to the IMF's estimate calculated on the basis of export statistics covering almost all countries in the world, the development of Russian imports looks similar to that based on the central bank's import statistics, but the export statistics point to a slightly slower recovery. Russian customs no longer regularly publishes foreign trade statistics. Therefore, no recent official statistics are available on the country and product distribution of Russian imports. However, the development of the trade structure can also be evaluated based on the export statistics of trading partner countries.
Based on an estimate based on the exports of about 80 countries, the value of Russian goods imports in January-April of this year was about 6% lower compared to the corresponding time in 2021. The import of technology products has recovered more slowly than other imports. In January-April, the import of electrical equipment, optical equipment, etc. was still about 15% lower than at the same time in 2021. The value of machinery imports was also almost 10% lower. In contrast, the import of cars was only 3% lower and the import of other goods was almost at the same level as in January-April 2021. However, the amount of imports is estimated to have developed weaker than the value, because the prices and transport costs of many imported goods have risen. Imports of technology products have developed weaker than other imports, especially due to the sanctions imposed by Western countries. Many export restrictions target technology products, but almost all technology exports to Russia are not prohibited. In addition, for e.g. passenger cars, sanctions mainly limit the export of more expensive cars.
Calculated on the basis of the IMF's export statistics, the EU's share of Russia's goods imports is about 20%, China and Hong Kong about 40%, the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union about 15% and Turkey 5%.
RUSSIA Country Report September 2023 www.intellinews.com