Page 24 - RusRPTNov22

2.9 Will Europe's energy supply allow it to make it through the winter?
Europe has filled its gas storage facilities to close to 95% of capacity, and while gas prices are still very high, they are substantially down from previous spikes. How the continent’s energy system will fare this winter, however, will depend on a number of factors – many of which are highly unpredictable.
Supply side To name the biggest factor first, it will depend on how severe the winter weather proves to be, which is very hard to predict. Not only would a cold winter increase the need for heating; a low-precipitation winter would result in low hydroelectric power generation, and a still winter would lead to less wind power output. Regardless of the weather, there is then the uncertainty about how effectively France can resolve its nuclear outages. A union strike currently underway that has affected nearly a third of France’s nuclear reactors has not helped matters, delaying important maintenance work.
Then there is the outlook for natural gas supply into Europe. The upside for Russian supply is now very limited, as the suspected sabotage at the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines means that at least three of the four pipeline strings will be out of service for months, if not longer. Already, Russian gas supply is under 20% of the level in 2021.
There is, however, a downside for Russian gas. Moscow could cut off deliveries entirely to apply further geopolitical pressure on Europe. Or the fresh dispute between Ukraine and Russia over transit payments could heat up. With Nord Stream offline, and the Yamal-Europe pipeline rendered inoperable by
24 RUSSIA Country Report November 2022 www.intellinews.com