Page 26 - RusRPTNov22

This winter is not the last Europe must also prepare for next winter as well as this one. Europe will make it through this winter with the amount of gas that it has accumulated in storage, but volumes will likely be heavily depleted. If for example, Europe leaves this winter with its storage facilities filled to only 20%, it will have to inject some 70 bcm of gas to reach 90% utilisation by next winter.
Prices so far have been high but also very volatile. With unreliable Russian supply already at an all-time low, next year is likely to see a lot less volatility, but prices will still be high, further exacerbating the economic crisis.
And not much extra LNG supply will come online in the meantime, or beyond next year. New liquefaction plants coming online in the next few years are mainly small in scale, save for Russia’s Arctic LNG-2 plant, officially due to start up in 2023-2024. But sanctions have made the outlook for that project very unclear. Meanwhile, large-scale plants such as North Field East in Qatar, Golden Pass, Plaquemines and Corpus Christi Stage 3 in the US, and Canada LNG, are not expected to be operational until 2025 or later.
2.10 Russian business and consumer confidence
The consumer confidence index, which reflects the aggregate consumer expectations of the population, in Q3 2022 compared to Q2 2022 increased by 9 percentage points (hereinafter referred to as p.p.) and amounted to (-22%).
The index of expected changes in the economic situation in Russia for the short term in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the second quarter of 2022 increased by 8 p.p. and amounted to (-14%).
The share of respondents who positively assess changes in the Russian economy over the next 12 months increased by 2 p.p. in Q3 2022 compared to Q2 2022. – up to 19% (in Q2 2022 – 17%). The share of negative assessments decreased by 9 p.p. up to - 38% (in the II quarter of 2022 - 47%). The share of respondents who believe that the economic situation in Russia will remain the same increased by 8 p.p. – up to 42% (in Q1 2022 – 34%).
The index of expected changes in the economic situation in Russia for the short term in the 3rd quarter of 2022 compared to the 2nd quarter of 2022 increased in all age groups: among the younger generation (16-29 years old) - by 14 p.p. and amounted to (-11%), among middle-aged people (30-49 years old) - by 8 p.p. and amounted to (-12%), among the older generation (50 years and older) - by 6 p.p. and amounted to (-16%).
26 RUSSIA Country Report November 2022 www.intellinews.com