Page 56 - RusRPTNov22

5.0 External Sector & Trade 5.1 External sector overview
Russia’s foreign trade surplus more than doubled on the year to $238bn
in January–September, the central bank said on October 11. The regulator attributed the growth to high prices for main export goods of Russia and a contraction of import prices.
Russian customs has not published foreign trade statistics since Russia attacked Ukraine. However, the development of Russia's foreign trade can be evaluated with the help of various alternative indicators, e.g. by utilizing the trade statistics of other countries.
Estimated on the basis of the statistics of key trading partner countries, the value of Russian goods exports increased in the spring despite the war. The background was the high world market prices of raw materials, the transition periods of import restrictions on Russian goods and the finding of alternative export markets, especially in Asia.
However, the value of exports seems to have declined in recent months. In August, the value of exports was still equal to the average in the months before the war.
The differences between the countries are big. The value of Russian exports to EU countries was about 20% lower in August than in the months before the war. In contrast, the value of exports to China was approximately 50% higher in August-September, and the value of exports to India was as much as 5-6 times higher than the pre-war level.
Russia's goods imports fell sharply in the spring after the Russian invasion, but have since recovered somewhat. In August, the value of imports was approximately 30% lower than in the months before the war, based on the statistics of trading partner countries.
Imports have shrunk because demand in Russia has decreased, sanctions have restricted trade and payment transactions with Russia, and many companies have themselves decided to end their business with Russia.
There is also a lot of variation in imports between countries. The value of Russian imports from the EU was about 50% lower in August than in the months before the war. Imports have shrunk sharply even from many countries that have not imposed sanctions on Russia: e.g. Thailand by 35% and Vietnam by 60%. However, Russian imports from China have already recovered to their
56 RUSSIA Country Report November 2022 www.intellinews.com